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Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Jan 07, 2018

Jan 15, 2018 Ongoing protests in Iran are unlikely to immediately threaten the survival of the regime in their current form. While the protests have expanded to a much broader swath of Iran, protesters remain without central leadership and unarmed. Regime officials, including President Hassan Rouhani and First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri, are attempting to de-escalate the situation. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Nov 27, 2016

Nov. 27, 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that renewing the Iran Sanctions Act would “certainly” violate the nuclear deal. He added that Iran will “certainly respond” to a renewal of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA). He also accused the U.S. of using the nuclear deal “as a tool to apply pressure on Iran.” Mr. Khamenei has previously warned that the U.S. is failing to honor its commitments under the nuclear deal without stating that Iran will withdraw from the accord, however. The ISA authorizes energy, banking, and defense sanctions over Iran’s missile and nuclear activities and is set to expire at the end of the year. The U.S. House of Representatives voted for a “clean” ten-year renewal the ISA on November 15 by a vote of 419 to 1. The Senate is expected to vote on the renewal before adjourning in December. Supporters of the legislation claim that renewing the ISA will protect the U.S. government’s ability to impose “snapback sanctions” if Iran violates the nuclear deal. The White House has not signaled that it will veto the legislation. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Nov 20, 2016

Nov. 20, 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed that Donald Trump’s election makes “no difference” to Iran in his first remarks after the presidential election. Khamenei claimed that Iranians are “neither celebrating nor mourning because the elections make no difference to us.” He added that both Republicans and Democrats “have constantly directed their hostility toward the Iranian nation” since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iranian officials have expressed skepticism that U.S. policy toward Iran will change under the Trump administration. Senior Military Advisor to the Supreme Leader IRGC Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, for example, advised Iranian media to “let some time pass” before analyzing the effects of Trump’s victory. Several Iranian officials were cautiously optimistic about the effects of Trump’s victory in the days immediately preceding the elections, however. Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani, for example, said that he hoped the election would induce U.S. authorities to review “policies based on domination, intervention, and war in other countries.” Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Nov 13, 2016

Nov. 13, 2016 Iranian officials indicated concern regarding America’s commitment to the nuclear deal in reaction to the election of Donald Trump. President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stressed that the next U.S. president must fulfill its requirements under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reflecting the regime’s apprehension over President-elect Trump’s previous pledges to renegotiate or even dismantle the deal. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Nov 06, 2016

Nov. 06, 2016 Parliament approved President Hassan Rouhani’s candidates to head the Culture and Islamic Guidance, Sports and Youth Affairs, and Education ministries. Parliament voted to approve Reza Salehi Amiri as Culture and Islamic Guidance minister, Massoud Soltani Far as Sports and Youth Affairs minister, and Fakhreddin Ahmadi Danesh Ashtiani as Education minister. Their appointments follow the resignations of the heads of those three ministries last month. The vote reflects the stronger moderate-conservative presence in the current Parliament, which was elected in spring 2016. Rouhani had nominated all three for ministerial positions early on in his term, but the previous, conservative-dominated Parliament rejected all three. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Nov 06, 2016

Nov. 06, 2016 Parliament approved President Hassan Rouhani’s candidates to head the Culture and Islamic Guidance, Sports and Youth Affairs, and Education ministries. Parliament voted to approve Reza Salehi Amiri as Culture and Islamic Guidance minister, Massoud Soltani Far as Sports and Youth Affairs minister, and Fakhreddin Ahmadi Danesh Ashtiani as Education minister. Their appointments follow the resignations of the heads of those three ministries last month. The vote reflects the stronger moderate-conservative presence in the current Parliament, which was elected in spring 2016. Rouhani had nominated all three for ministerial positions early on in his term, but the previous, conservative-dominated Parliament rejected all three. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Oct 30, 2016

Oct 30, 2016 President Hassan Rouhani called the American presidential elections a choice between “bad and worse.” President Hassan Rouhani claimed that the presidential elections show that “ethics do not exist” in the U.S. Rouhani added, “Look at how they talk, the way they accuse each other, and the way that they mock each other!” Iranian media outlets and senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have ramped up their commentary on the U.S. election in recent weeks. Iranian state television even aired a presidential debate live for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic. Iran’s leadership, however, has voiced apprehension over the effects of the election on U.S. policy toward Iran. In late September, for example, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran warned that the U.S. presidential elections could bring “difficult days” for the nuclear deal. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Oct 23, 2016

Oct 23, 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued 18 guidelines for Iran’s electoral process, including a reiteration of the ban on the armed forces interfering in elections. IRGC Political Deputy Brigadier General Rasoul Sanaei Rad issued a statement confirming that the IRGC’s role in the elections will be limited to “explanation and clarification” and will not “enter or interfere with political divisions.” Iranian law prohibits IRGC members from engaging in political activity. Separately, Parliament passed a resolution limiting the timeframe in which the Guardian Council can disqualify electoral candidates. The council must approve the resolution before it can take effect. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Oct 16, 2016

Oct 16, 2016 A deputy minister in Iran’s Economy and Finance Ministry downplayed the significance of the U.S. Treasury Department’s new guidance on Iranian sanctions. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control clarified on October 7 that non-U.S. banks can do dollar transactions with Iran if they do not pass through U.S. financial institutions. The clarification also permits transactions with non-sanctioned Iranian entities that are “minority owned” or “controlled in whole or in part” by individuals who remain under non-nuclear sanctions. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Oct 09, 2016

Oct 09, 2016 A subsidiary of Setad will sign the first oil contract modeled off of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) on October 4. Setad, also known as the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order (EIKO), is a business conglomerate under the control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is estimated to be worth more than $95 billion. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Oct 02, 2016

Oct , 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei advised former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against running in the 2017 presidential elections. Mr. Khamenei confirmed rumors that he had recommended former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to seek a third term in the May 2017 presidential elections. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report September 25, 2016

Sept. 25, 2016 President Hassan Rouhani met with British Prime Minister Theresa May after arriving in New York for the UN General Assembly on September 20. Rouhani urged European governments to “assure major world banks of the possibility of cooperation with Iranian banks” during his meeting with May. Rouhani stated that London can lead confidence-building efforts with banks for partnerships with Iran and added, “As long as some technical problems regarding banking and insurance issues have not been resolved, the obligations of the other party under the nuclear deal have not been met.” May reportedly raised the issue of a detained British-Iranian national recently sentenced to five years in prison. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report September 18, 2016

Sept. 18, 2016 Foreign Ministry officials announced Iran’s support for the Syrian ceasefire plan brokered by the U.S. and Russia. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghassemi stated that Iran “always welcomes a ceasefire in Syria.” Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Jaberi Ansari also praised the ceasefire, stating, “Iran welcomes any kind of ceasefire and peace plan that ends or limits the human tragedy in Syria and that is based upon the Syrian nation’s votes.” The Syrian government and rebels reportedly violated the ceasefire within an hour after came into effect at sunset on September 12, however. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report September 11, 2016

Sept. 11, 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called upon Islamic countries to “fundamentally reconsider” Saudi Arabia’s management of the Hajj pilgrimage, which began on September 9. Mr. Khamenei claimed that Saudi Arabia “martyred” those injured during the 2015 Hajj stampede instead of providing them with medical treatment. The 2015 Hajj stampede reportedly killed over 2,200 pilgrims, including more than 400 Iranians. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report September 04, 2016

Sept. 04, 2016 According to the latest data released by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the average inflation rate continued to fall in the 12 months to the Persian month of Mordad (fifth month of the fiscal year, July 22, 2016 – August 21, 2016), reaching 8.7% -- down from 9% in the 12 months to the fourth month of the year, Tir (June 22, 2016 – July 21, 2016). However, the year-over-year inflation increased to 7.4% in Mordad from 6.5% in Tir. Since a few months ago, the falling inflation trend has changed, signaling that the government has been facing challenges in its attempt to retain its achievement -- single digit inflation. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report August 28, 2016

Aug. 28, 2016 Last week the statistics published by the Central Bank showed the continuation of the falling pace of inflation. The minister of economic affairs and finance announced that inflation stood at 8.9% at the end of the fifth month of the Persian year 1395 (Mordad). Minister Ali Tayebnia hailed the administration’s effort to achieve single digit inflation, as expected, saying that inflation has remained a single digit for the past couple of months. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report August 21, 2016

Aug. 21, 2016 President Hassan Rouhani defended the nuclear agreement and announced that the Iranian economy reached 4.4 percent growth for the first three months of the Iranian calendar year. Rouhani contrasted the current state of the economy with its negative growth rate of 6.8 percent when he came into office in 2013. Rouhani also praised the nuclear agreement for facilitating economic progress. Rouhani has previously predicted that the economy would have a 5 percent growth rate in this Iranian year, which began on March 20, 2016. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report August 14, 2016

Aug. , 2016 Vice President for Legal Affairs Majid Ansari called for the Judiciary to investigate “recent insults” against President Hassan Rouhani amid an increasingly hostile domestic political environment. Ansari attributed the “unprecedented affronts” in Iranian politics to the upcoming presidential elections in May 2017. Tehran Prosecutor-General Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi similarly stated on August 7 that “insults, spreading lies, and printing falsities” against officials are crimes. Rouhani has come under increasing criticism for America’s perceived lackluster implementation of the nuclear deal, including from a Friday prayer leader who recently called him “Mr. Gullible” for believing Iran would benefit from the deal. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report August 07, 2016

Aug. , 2016 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani expressed competing views on the nuclear deal’s impact since its implementation in January. Mr. Khamenei disputed the deal’s economic benefits for the Iranian people, asking, “Has there been a tangible effect on the people’s lives in the past six months?” Rouhani argued that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has expanded Iran’s economic choices in remarks on the same day, however. He stated, “The JCPOA means that you are free to pick dozens of countries to buy our oil, instead of just two countries. The JCPOA environment has created the freedom of choice for our people.” Khamenei also reiterated his wholesale rejection of negotiating with the U.S. on regional issues by describing such negotiations as a “lethal poison.” Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report July 31, 2016

July 31, 2016 The Central Bank of Iran released its latest report on the Consumer Price Index for the fourth month of the Iranian Calendar Year (June 21 – July 21 2016). According to the CBI, the CPI measure has increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. The M-o-M inflation reported for the previous month had stood at 1.2%. In the latest report, the Food & Beverages group index has dropped by 0.2%, recording the largest negative change. In contrast, the Health Care price index has experienced the highest growth by increasing 5.1%. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report July 24, 2016

July , 2016 Senior Iranian officials criticized the attempted coup against Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan as undemocratic. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani noted that Iran opposes “any sort of coup in the country, either backed by domestic or foreign plotters.” Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati promised that Iran’s “principles” as a nation would force it to “oppose this coup d’état or any other coups.” Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report July 17, 2016

July , 2016 Pro-Rouhani officials praised the nuclear deal on the occasion of its one-year anniversary. Several senior officials released statements marking the anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by defending its accomplishments as Iranians increasingly doubt its payoffs. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report July 10, 2016

July 10, 2016 On July 2nd President Hassan Rouhani promised to pursue salary reform “to the end” and announced a plan to “reorganize” the country’s banking system in the wake of leaks that government employees have received excessive benefits and salaries. Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report July 03, 2016

July 03, 2016 Iranian officials condemned the terrorist attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport, where one Iranian was killed, and five wounded. A Member of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee criticized Turkish foreign policy and “support for terrorists” as contributing to the attacks, stating, “The Turkish regime turned its own cities, including Istanbul, into the center of terrorists’ strategy.” Read more

Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report June 26, 2016

June 26, 2016 Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani claimed that the Assembly of Experts has identified two potential successors to current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani stated that the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body formally charged with selecting the next supreme leader, has narrowed its search down to two people. Rafsanjani, who is also a member of the Assembly, did not provide any names or biographical details for the two individuals and noted that the process is confidential. Read more

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